Evidence is Mounting: Apple Will Convert the Macs to ARM CPUs

The time since most of the Macs have been updated can now be described as geologic. Is that because Apple doesn’t care about the Macs? Time Cook says “I Love the Mac.” Or, more likely, could we be in for another major architectural change? Evidence is mounting that Apple really will abandon Intel and take the Mac lineup to ARM. Here’s the assessment.

First, let’s look at the latest evidence from iDownloadBlog.

macOS Sierra code suggests Apple could replace Intel in Macs with custom ARM chips

That article nicely recounts the history of this notion, including this important section.

And in 2014, former head of the Macintosh division Jean-Louis Gassée hinted that the first ARM-based Macs could appear in 2017.

Gassée explained:

If we follow this line of reasoning, the advantages of ARM-based processors vs. x86 devices become even more compelling: lower cost, better power dissipation, natural integration with the rest of the machine. For years, Intel has argued that its superior semiconductor design and manufacturing technology would eventually overcome the complexity downsides of the x86 architecture.

But that ‘eventually’ is getting a bit stale. Other than a few showcase design wins that have never amounted to much in the real world, x86 devices continue to lose to ARM-derived SoC (System On a Chip) designs.

The Key Issues

In addition to what Jean-Louis Gassée explained abive, there are some other nuances to explore.

1. Intel releases its new CPUs on its own timetable that doesn’t rigorously take into account Apple’s technical needs and product development cycle.


2. All iOS devices use ARM. This change will make Xcode and development in general more coherent across platforms. It could lead to better synergies between iOS and macOS.


3. The ARM processors in the latest iOS devices are 64-bit and more than competitive with CPUs from Intel in performance.


4. Apple is the acknowledged expert in taking millions of customers though a major architecture change. The company did it first from Motorola 68K to PowerPC in 1998 and then PowerPC to Intel in 2005.


5. The very long time since we’ve had updates to the Mac Pro, Mac mini, MacBook Air and MacBook Pro suggests (but doesn’t guarantee) that this architecture change has been in the works. Apple is taking its sweet time to do it right. That would include, perhaps, a Rosetta-like mechanism that allows current Intel-based Mac apps to run on the new Macs.


6. Apple’s technical roadmap may well be diverging from Intel’s, one that has to take into account the needs of PC makers, not Apple. Perhaps Apple is done with this. Also, the nicety of installing Windows natively on a Mac with Boot Camp is a notion whose time has come and gone.


7. Virtual Machine hardware in the ARM CPUs and an instruction translator would still allow Mac users to run VMs with Intel-based OSes like Windows and Linux. From what we’ve seen, modern ARM CPUs have the horsepower to do that.

A new ARM-based MacPro? Perhaps not the droid we were looking for. Image credit: Apple

That said, I strongly suspect that the MacBook Pros, rumored to be announced in October will be the last Macs with an Intel CPU, the Skylake series.

The question now is, will Apple simply release the new MacBook Pros without mentioning the transition? This is important because if Apple tips its hand at an October event, too many customers might decide to wait until 2017 to upgrade their MBP.

On the other, had, it could make sense to introduce an ARM-based Mac Pro or 5K iMac and suggest that the MacBook Pros will be the last Macs to make the transition in 2017/8. Mac customers would collectively breathe a sigh of relief to finally see what Apple is up to.

And if you need a new MBP, buy it now (in October). It will be viable for years. Meanwhile, Apple will deliver a multi-CPU workhorse ARM-based Mac Pro/iMac for developers to get the ball rolling.

This is a delicate maneuver for Apple because customers are hungry for new Macs, and the company would have to both plan for and announce these new Macs in the right sequence with the right messaging.

Now we wait.

Next page: The Tech News Debris for the Week of September 26th. The new Apple Echo chamber.

Page 2 – The Tech News Debris for the Week of September 26th

The New Apple Echo Chamber

The Echo. Image credit: Amazon

Bloomberg (Mark Gurman) is reporting that, according to people familiar with the matter,

Apple Inc. is pressing ahead with the development of an Echo-like smart-home device based on the Siri voice assistant….

Started more than two years ago, the project has exited the research and development lab and is now in prototype testing, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing unannounced Apple projects.

As Mark Gurman explains it, Apple engineers were surprised at the Amazon Echo and its success. But how would Apple differentiate itself from the Echo? Part of it would be a more advanced microphone and speaker system. Another element would likely be a more advanced version of Siri, one that better understands its users.

The issue for Apple may well be that the Amazon Echo has a clear-cut business model: help customers buy the things they need more easily. Apple, on the other hand has struggled with its leadership in home automation. Customers haven’t yet seen compelling, consistent, secure home automation systems that fit into their current lives and make sense for the whole family.

The spectre of being locked out of the house or being spied on, with or without the developers knowledge, and the technical overhead it takes to develop an automated home is beyond the reach (or desire) of many. Meanwhile, the Amazon Echo just sits there and attends to its simple tasks: music, news, information queries, to do lists, timers and alarms, and help with placing Amazon orders.

By way of contrast, the Bloomberg article cites an extensive (and perhaps depressing) list of services Apple is experimenting with. Could it be that Amazon’s Big Data analysis of its customer habits is more effective than Apple’s engineering research? Just a thought.

And that may be the dilemma for Apple. What do customers really want to do, and how can they do it easily and non-technically? Surging beyond the Echo into new technical arenas, without a Amazon-like product inventory and/or a much more advanced Siri could take Apple down an uncomfortable, intractable technical path. On the other hand, limiting the Apple product to what the Echo can do today would seem like a limited, me-too effort.

And let’s not forget what Google is doing. “A High-Stakes Bet: Turning Google Assistant Into a ‘Star Trek’ Computer.”  It’s a high-stakes endeavor for all.

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More Debris

Macs in Chemistry has compiled a list of scientific apps that run under macOS Sierra. Plus there’s a link on that page to previous lists for Yosemite and EL Capitan. This is a nice, focused counterpart to the more broad Roaring Apps, a broad, crowdsourced database of Mac apps compatible with each OS X/macOS release.

The New York Times asks a good question. “Phone Makers Could Cut Off Drivers. So Why Don’t They?” It’s a good discussion.

Back in 2014, I discussed an Apple patent that could block drivers from texting while driving. “Apple Plans to Block Drivers with iPhones From Texting.” At the time, I bet our Bryan Chaffin that Apple would bring this technology to the U.S. in two years.

I lost that bet.

Apparently the technique Apple uses to encrypt iOS backups is less robust than the one used in iOS9? A programming oops? Or a surreptitious attempt to appease the FBI? No one knows. See: “iPhone Hackers Say Apple Weakened Backup Security With iOS 10.” Forbes continues…

This article was updated … to include Apple’s statement that it was planning to address the weakness.

Finally, TechCrunch published a very good article on the federal policy for how “self-driving cars are developed, regulated, and policed in the U.S.” See: “Federal policy for self-driving cars pushes data sharing.” This includes a robust mechanism for access and analysis, by the NHTSA, of data collected from a crash.

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Particle Debris is a generally a mix of John Martellaro’s observations and opinions about a standout event or article of the week (preamble on page one) followed on page two by a discussion of articles that didn’t make the TMO headlines, the technical news debris. The column is published most every Friday except for holidays.

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